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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.