How Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may in fact be using Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia called the US president who then touted the potential summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.