Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
